In fact it is hard to know in any industry. A shareholder in my first business told me this story: His brother had a bunch of shops in the subways selling household goods. He bought a container load of near expiry batteries to sell cheap. At first, at $2, nobody wanted them. He lowered to $1 and suddenly they sold like hot cakes. Weird is the psychology of the consumer. We can only follow tried and tested precedents.
In any case all we can do is make the best guess based on historical data. That’s what AI does as well. In the case of the discussion above I was partly guided by the fact that certain countries, like China, are ahead of the West in the mobile app space. Hence if human nature holds across the board, we should see apps consolidate soon.